If you choose first, there is obviously a 1/3 chance that you will pick a car. If you pick second, you must add (1. the probability that you pick a car given that your friend picks a goat) and (2. the probability that you pick a car given that your friend picks a car). So P(Car|Friend->Goat) + P(Car|Friend->Car)

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Followed her dream after having raised her family.

Ruth Enoch, PhD Mathematics